As the holiday season approaches, U.S. consumers are not only preparing to splurge on gifts but also focusing on acquiring everyday necessities amidst economic uncertainties. Adobe forecasts reveal that between 1 November and 31 December 2026, online sales are anticipated to surge by 6.7% year over year, reaching a total of $275.1 billion.
Key Holiday Spending Trends
The five-day period dubbed Cyber Week, spanning Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, is projected to see a 7.4% increase in online sales to $47.5 billion. Cyber Monday alone is expected to break records, generating more than $15 billion in sales, marking a 6.2% rise from the previous year. In contrast, Black Friday sales growth is outpacing Cyber Monday, with an anticipated 9.2% increase amounting to $12.9 billion, fuelled by substantial discounts on televisions, appliances, and apparel.
Essential Goods on the Rise
In light of economic pressures, shoppers this year are likely to prioritise essential goods over luxury items. Adobe projects that during Cyber Week, sales of personal hygiene products will see a remarkable 150% jump from average levels in September 2026. Similarly, sales of clothing basics could increase by 210%, while baby and pet products are expected to rise by 113% and 93%, respectively. Household cleaning products sales are projected to go up by 49%.
Electronics and Apparel Lead
Despite the focus on essentials, the top spending categories for the holiday season remain electronics and apparel, anticipated to generate $63.3 billion (up 5.9%) and $51.3 billion (up 4.7%) respectively. Furniture sales are also set to grow by 7.3% to $33.4 billion, while groceries, toys, and cosmetics each show a 10% year-over-year increase, reaching $26.1 billion, $9.6 billion, and $9.2 billion correspondingly. Average discounts across all categories are forecasted to be consistent with those offered in 2025.
Pre-Holiday Shopping Surge
The October Prime Big Deal Days event is emerging as a significant precursor to the holiday shopping season. Scheduled over two days, the event is expected to generate nearly $10 billion in online sales, indicating a broader trend of increased early-season shopping interest. Forecasts suggest October’s total online sales will rise by 8% year over year, achieving $95.8 billion.
The Role of Mobile and AI
Thanksgiving Day sales alone are predicted to grow by 8.5% to $6.9 billion, with mobile devices accounting for a record 63% of this online expenditure, up from 61.6% in 2025. This trend reflects broader mobile shopping habits, where buy now, pay later (BNPL) methods are predominantly utilised on mobile, making up 82% of BNPL transactions. This holiday season, BNPL spending is expected to increase 6.6% to $21.3 billion, with Cyber Monday projected to contribute a significant $1.09 billion to that total.
Additionally, artificial intelligence is anticipated to play a pivotal role in enhancing the shopping experience. AI-driven traffic to U.S. online retail sites could rise by 130% year over year, with a recent survey from Adobe suggesting that 77% of AI users felt more confident in their purchases, while 69% were less inclined to return items bought using AI assistance.
Reporting based on coverage first published by retaildive.com.