As U.S. retailers brace for the holiday season, a decrease in seasonal hiring is anticipated with only 450,000 jobs expected to be added in the fourth quarter of 2026, down from 461,500 in the same period last year, according to a newly released forecast by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This prediction reflects a broader trend of shifting staffing strategies among many large corporations.
Shifts in Seasonal Hiring Patterns
The number of new fourth-quarter retail jobs in the U.S. is predicted to fall by 2.5% year-over-year. In 2025, holiday season hiring saw its smallest increase since 2008, dropping 15% from the previous year’s 543,100 jobs. Leading U.S. retailers are abstaining from making significant hiring announcements, relying instead on flexible, on-demand staffing to meet labor needs, according to the Challenger report.
Economic Factors Influencing Hiring Decisions
Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, attributed the cautious approach to several economic factors, including high prices and concerns over tariffs. While August retail sales did increase by 1.2%, uncertainties around consumer spending due to rising prices dampen the urgency for major hiring initiatives. “Retailers are approaching staffing more surgically instead of reverting to the larger seasonal hiring numbers seen in 2020 and 2021,” he explained.
Mixed Strategies Among Retailers
Notably, some retailers, like Spirit Halloween, Michaels, and Bass Pro Shops, have begun to announce hiring plans. Spirit Halloween intends to hire over 52,000 seasonal workers, marking its largest hiring event, while Michaels plans to add over 10,000 temporary team members, with many of last year’s hires having transitioned to permanent positions. Conversely, prominent chains such as Amazon and Bath & Body Works have yet to declare their seasonal hiring strategies, noted the report.
Looming Hiring Numbers
Over the past three years, Amazon consistently hired around 250,000 seasonal workers each year, usually sharing hiring plans by mid-October, though none have surfaced so far for 2026. Similarly, Bath & Body Works has not shared plans for its customary 30,000 holiday hires. Target and Kohl’s, known for hiring approximately 100,000 and 90,000 seasonal employees, respectively, have embarked on their seasonal hiring campaign without disclosing specific targets.
Contextualizing Employment Trends
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in August showed the retail workforce at 15.47 million, marking an increase of roughly 63,000 jobs compared to August 2025. However, these figures typically decline in September as many young employees resume school. As Andy Challenger pointed out, the strategies in recent years reflect more refined approaches, distinct from the heavier pre-pandemic hiring efforts. Even if major retailers maintain last year’s hiring levels, the total is expected to remain below the peaks witnessed between 2019 and 2021.
Reporting based on coverage first published by retaildive.com.