In late June, severe thunderstorms caused significant disruptions at London’s Heathrow and Gatwick airports as thousands of holiday travellers encountered unexpected delays. Storms over southern England and much of northern Europe led to airspace congestion, resulting in 900 delayed flights and several cancellations. Some delays lasted up to 11 hours.
Climate Concerns Emerging
The events of June serve as a potential warning sign for the future of air travel. Industry insiders suggest that climate change may increase the frequency of such disruptions due to more unpredictable weather patterns. Tim Atkinson, an airline risk consultant and former pilot, points out that the UK and northern Europe are particularly vulnerable due to their crowded airspace.
He warns that storms affecting all London’s airports simultaneously could lead to significant issues in both air and ground operations. “We’re experiencing rapid climate change,” Atkinson explains, raising the possibility of London airports being abruptly out of action.
Managing Congested Skies
Air traffic controllers at National Air Traffic Services (NATS) at Swanwick are on high alert during storms, watching storm cells closely to manage flight paths effectively. Bad weather reduces available airspace, necessitating quick decisions to divert flights. This approach aims to avoid hazardous conditions but requires careful planning as misdirection can cause congestion at alternative airports.
Atkinson speculates about combined storm activity above Heathrow, Gatwick, Luton, and Stansted airports, which might force numerous flights, including transatlantic ones, to search for landing spots simultaneously. This could heighten risks, such as aircraft running low on fuel.
Despite these worries, not all experts agree. Andrew Charlton, a former airline executive, believes such scenarios are unlikely and trusts the industry’s capacity to adjust and manage effectively, putting this concern lower on his list of aviation challenges.
Climate Impacts on Aviation
Thunderstorms arise from rising warm moist air, creating towering clouds and potential turbulence, leading to route changes for safety. The UK’s Met Office warns that while storms may not increase in number, they could become more severe. Therefore, aircraft are also expected to carry more fuel to allow for potential diversions, raising operational costs which might be passed on to consumers.
Future air traffic management improvements could come from innovative technologies. Heathrow and Gatwick airports have adopted systems to adjust aircraft spacing based on current conditions, theoretically reducing delays.
Flooding from severe rainfall poses another threat to airport operations, as exemplified by Dubai International Airport’s closure in April 2024, impacting over 1,200 flights. Gatwick Airport has already invested heavily in flood prevention.
Challenges of Clear-Air Turbulence
Clear-air turbulence, invisible and increasingly frequent, presents another challenge as climate changes. It can result in sudden, severe jolts during flights, as evidenced by a March 2023 Lufthansa flight incident where passengers and crew sustained injuries during unexpected turbulence.
Paul Williams, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, highlights that severe turbulence incidents, particularly over the North Atlantic, have increased by 55% since 1979. He remains hopeful, however, that advancements in forecasting and technology might offer solutions.
Rising Sea Levels: A Looming Threat
Sea levels rising poses a long-term threat to coastal airports. For instance, New York’s LaGuardia saw its runways flooded during Hurricane Sandy in 2012, shutting it down for days. Research indicates such flooding events, previously rare, are now occurring more frequently and will continue to do so.
An estimated 269 airports globally are already at risk, with numbers set to climb, demanding considerable investment in protection measures, such as flood defences or modifications to existing airports.
The aviation sector, already under scrutiny for its emissions, faces pressure to become carbon neutral by 2050 while managing expected growth that could double the global aircraft fleet in two decades. However, as Andrew Charlton suggests, airports and airlines must prepare to accommodate increased disruptions by expanding facilities and infrastructure.
As climate change impinges upon travel, adapting to more frequent disturbances may become part and parcel of the flying experience.
Reporting based on coverage first published by bbc.co.uk.